Demography may sound like a stiff and formal discipline, but when translated into familiar examples it becomes a science you will no doubt be intrigued by.
For example, even marriage can be discussed in the context of demography. In view of the postwar demographic composition in Japan, modern women have an overwhelming advantage over men in the marriage marketplace. The sex ratio at birth is one reason behind this. Since ancient times, the ratio has consistently remained roughly the same—105 male births for every 100 female births—regardless of ethnic group, nation, or era. Therefore, structurally speaking, there will always be men who will be left without a match. The other reason lies in the fact that the average age of men’s first marriage is about two years older than that of women in Japan. Considering that the number of births has been declining almost entirely throughout the postwar era, it can be said that the number of women who are two years younger is lower than the number of men, which also gives women an advantage.
When the percentage of lifelong singles was announced in 2010, researchers were astonished. The percentage of lifelong singles is the proportion of people who have never married at the age of 50. The figure was 20% for men, which was twice as much as the figure for women, at 10%. This was a result nobody would have expected 20 years ago. One reason behind this is that a higher percentage of men than women remarry. In other words, because popular men get married twice or three times, unpopular men are left out of the game, spending their whole lives as singles. This is why I jokingly tell my male students to never let go of their girlfriend.
Japan is one of the countries where population aging and the declining birth rate are advancing at the fastest rate in the world, and the decrease in Japan’s population will accelerate in the coming years, falling 30% from 127.77 million in 2005 to 86.74 million in 2060, 55 years later. What will society be like in the future? Let’s look at Japan in the past from the perspective of population.
After World War II, the first baby boomers were born. Of note, those born from 1947 to 49 are referred to as the dankai generation in Japan. Let’s take a look at this cohort.
We refer to the generation of people born between 1945 and 1949, including the dankai generation born between 1947 and 1949, as the 1945‒49 cohort. In demography, we analyze people by grouping them according to their birth years. In the figure entitled Internal Migrants by Type of Migration on the right, you can see that a huge number of people moved from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas between 1960 and 1969, which coincides with when the 1945‒49 cohort joined the labor force at 15 to 20 years after their birth. This cohort constituted the abundant labor force used by the heavy industries including steel production and shipbuilding companies, leading Japan through its high economic growth.
However, the trend suddenly came to a halt from around 1975 to 1979. This was interpreted as attributable to the phenomenon of migrants to metropolitan areas returning to their hometowns, commonly referred to as the “U-turn.” However, what seemed like a “U-turn” trend was in fact caused by a decrease in the number of migrants to metropolitan areas. If you look at the figure on the upper right, you will note the precipitous fall in the number of migrants from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas.
The reason behind the decrease in migrants from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas lies in the shrinking parameter of interest, namely the cohort of potential migrants to metropolitan areas, due to the significant decline in the number of births in and after the 1950s, after the first baby boomers were born. In other words, the social phenomenon was caused by the disparity in the population size of the dankai generation and the generation that followed, which we refer to as the “cohort effect.” Economists see the population migration as having been caused by the high economic growth, which is also a widely shared interpretation. I do not deny this theory, but as a demographer I contend that the high economic growth was, in fact, attributable to the abundant labor force. It can also be said that economic phenomena and population have mutual synergistic effects.
Now, if you look at the graph on the Internal Migrants by Type of Migration again, you will see a reverse phenomenon occurring in around 1993, similar to the “U-turn” trend seen between 1975 and 1979. This phenomenon in 1993 is associated with the dankai junior generation born between 1971 and 1974. The year 1993 is around the time when the cohort of people born between 1971 and 75 turned 20, which is also when they left their parents’ homes. However, being the offspring of the dankai generation, the 1971‒75 cohort were born and raised in metropolitan areas. This is why the number of migrants from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas decreased.
Members of the dankai junior generation born in metropolitan areas did not need to move anywhere, as universities and companies were located within their local region. They consequently stayed at their parents’ house, becoming “parasite singles.” As people naturally seek prosperity, they tend to prefer to maintain their current living standards rather than getting married and becoming financially disadvantaged. Thus, the percentage of lifelong singles is increasing. Although this theory is still under study and inconclusive, it can be considered that people are staying single or getting married later in life, precipitating a decline in the birth rate and population aging and giving rise to a new trend in demographics.
You may think population aging is a problem that concerns depopulated areas rather than large cities. Indeed, the proportion of the elderly population is higher in depopulated areas, but going forward the issue will draw closer attention as a problem faced by metropolitan areas. This is because by the mid-21st century, the increase in the elderly as a percentage of the population in metropolitan areas will outpace that of non-metropolitan areas.
Why is population aging faster in metropolitan areas? Here again, the dankai generation holds the key. If the dankai generation were widely dispersed nationwide, there would be no regional disparity, but they are actually heavily concentrated in metropolitan areas. To be precise, all generations are concentrated in metropolitan areas, but more so with the dankai generation. It is the members of this generation who are becoming senior citizens. Notably, in increasingly more cases, residents of large-scale apartment complexes constructed in suburban metropolitan areas during the high economic growth era are becoming older all at once at a certain point in time, like in a game of Othello. This is no wonder, as the first generation of such apartment complex residents were heavily concentrated in the same age bracket, mainly in their 30s. Many of these residents belong to the dankai generation. On top of this, these collective housing facilities are becoming dilapidated, and are not barrier free. With no elevators, residents have no choice but to walk up the stairs to the fourth or fifth floor, even with frail legs and back. Such problems caused by population aging will increase drastically.
As such, the issue of population aging will undoubtedly become more serious in the coming years, but, in fact, there is one way to achieve an overnight reduction in the percentage share of the elderly population from the current 25% (as of 2013). Can you guess what it is? The answer is to change the definition of an “elderly person.” Usually, people aged 65 or older are defined as elderly, but if we were to raise this age to “75 or older,” the proportion of elderly people would instantly decrease by half. This may sound like a joke, but it has some validity behind it. A questionnaire survey conducted of elderly citizens aged 65 to 74 revealed that many of them are healthy and eager to work. With extended average life expectancy, it is becoming irrational to treat this age bracket in the same manner as older citizens aged 75 or above.
However, the fast pace at which population aging is progressing cannot be solved overnight. Changing the definition of the elderly will not slow down the speed of population aging. The problem lies in the fact that most of our social systems, whether structural or non-structural, have been created based on the old demographic structure. The pension system is the most prominent example, and so are the nursing care facilities for the elderly and the long-term care insurance system. As such systems cannot be redesigned instantly, we need to pay special attention to the fast population aging in metropolitan areas.
Thus, our social systems are barely aligned to address the current population aging, but appropriate solutions and business opportunities are bound to come up whenever problems arise.
For example, as a measure to tackle the earlier mentioned issue of aging apartment complexes, the Urban Renaissance Agency successfully undertook a unique initiative. Several buildings in an old apartment complex in Hino City in Tokyo were stylishly renovated for the younger generation, with various facilities built within the premises to encourage old and new residents of all generations to get together and socialize.
There is another case involving a former public housing complex known as the Tama New Town. More than 20 buildings constructed in the first phase of the complex development were rebuilt into seven high-rise apartment buildings by a private developer, which is also an interesting initiative.
This case is interesting because almost all the residents of the former buildings were able to become residents of the new apartment housing at barely any cost to themselves. This was because the private developer built a far greater number of residential units than in the previous housing complex by making maximum use of the statutory floor area ratio (the ratio of a building’s total floor area to the size of the piece of land on which it is built, as stipulated in the Building Standards Act), selling the extra housing units to cover the reconstruction costs. Thus, elevators and a barrier-free environment were introduced, completely resolving the issues distinctive to old apartment complexes.
The population of Japan will decrease by several hundred thousand persons a year. In the coming years, we will see just the opposite of the “population bonus” phase I mentioned earlier. If productivity per capita remains the same as before, it can easily be presumed that the Japanese economy will shrink. In the face of such a future, demographers tend to advocate pessimistic theories, but I myself sometimes like to be an optimist. Population aging and a shrinking labor force are seen as issues when judged by criteria set by humans, so we have only to reset the criteria, just like the definition of the elderly I mentioned earlier. A certain degree of population aging cannot be helped. The important thing is to accept it as a fact and try to create a good society even so.
(This column is as of 2014.)
